For Earth Day 2024, Elsy Milan, Postgraduate Researcher for the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, reflects COP28 in Dubai, the UAE Consensus and the increasingly central role of carbon capture usage and storage (CCUS) for many countries to achieve their emission reduction targets.
Today, we celebrate Earth Day, which now represents a global commitment to work collaboratively towards saving our planet. But where do we stand on delivering on this commitment?
COP28 in Dubai witnessed the negotiation and drafting of the UAE Consensus, an ambitious plan to accelerate the energy transition and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Energy was the major field deliberated, especially since the conference was held in the Gulf and chaired by an oil and gas expert.
The global stocktake calls for the tripling of renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. Countries are given the liberty to choose their desired transition scenario: this is where carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) comes into play as a critical agent in the new climate change era, known as the “beginning of the end” of fossil fuels.
Five months on, I share my experiences at COP28 and explain why CCUS is so critical to deliver on the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and the promise made by the international community fifty-four years on from the first Earth Day.
CCUS is essential to unite all countries around emissions reduction targets
CCUS is as an essential technology to decarbonise high-emitting end-use sectors (ammonia, methanol, iron and steel, and cement), particularly for fossil fuel states.
As a researcher on carbon capture and blue hydrogen, I expect CCUS to be key for decarbonisation since it encourages a smooth transition for many countries reluctant to sign previous international climate treaties.
Climate change remains an economic failure in today’s financial system. With many paths to decarbonisation with high technological readiness levels, policies remain a major area for improvement. CCUS and blue hydrogen remain an expensive but essential option for many countries.
CCUS is a highly controversial technology, but fossil fuel states, notably Saudi Arabia, pushed to include it in the final text of the UAE Consensus. This was guided by the intention to profit from their current wealth and availability of infrastructure to store emissions.
According to the International Energy Agency, it is virtually impossible to reach net zero without the adoption of CCUS. When emissions cannot be directly prevented or decreased, CCUS represents a drastic way to deliver on the emissions targets. International bodies agree on the fact that CCUS has an essential role in emissions reduction scenarios by capturing 1.5 Gt of CO2 by 2030 and potentially 6.3 Gt of CO2 by 2050.
Most importantly, retrofitting CCUS to current industrial clusters and power plants will help abate more than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 over the next fifty years. With heavy industries accounting for more than 20% of global CO2 emissions today, CCUS remains the only decarbonisation option for industries like cement. Furthermore, CCUS represents a cost-efficient route to produce blue hydrogen that meets the demand for new applications, such as sustainable fuels.
According to the Sustainable Development Scenario, CCUS plays a significant role in all global regions. This notably includes China, which is expected to represent around 20% of CO2 capture globally by 2030. Europe and the United States will also see a remarkable 11% increase in CCUS deployment by 2030. This means successful CCUS adoption and development is a reality for all major emitting nations if key carbon emission reduction targets are going to be reached.
Further international cooperation is a key ingredient for successful CCUS advancement
While national policies such as the CCUS Net Zero Investment Roadmap in the United Kingdom and the CCS Long-Term Roadmap in Japan are essential, international cooperation remains a key factor in creating synergies between countries. For example, the EU Innovation Fund currently supports about 26 industrial carbon management projects with a value of €3.3 billion.
It is important to note that COP28 was essential in outlining the importance of CCUS, but the progression towards a concrete application strategy is absent. With the anticipation that COP29 will focus on financing, I believe funding strategies for CCUS will feature through concrete pledges and guidelines in governments nationally determined contributions.
Current challenges for CCUS
There are many challenges hindering the full-scale deployment of CCUS. At COP28, most leaders focused on the high cost of CCUS technology and the need for scalability. From a cost perspective, CCUS represents an additional burden for businesses with few revenue streams. These are, nonetheless, encouraged by the implementation of numerous policy tools such as carbon taxes that help offset the high prices of CCUS inflicted on emitters. Additionally, development of infrastructure that reduce transportation costs are essential. This technical challenge is compounded by risks associated with storage, such as the monitoring of the injected volumes to avoid potential leakages and contamination of ground water. Finally, a social challenge is represented by a lack of community engagement and awareness of the scientific complexity of CCUS projects.
The next steps for CCUS: my research
My research wants to create demand for CCUS through effective policies to reduce the technology cost, increase technological readiness levels and reach a desired tipping point for CCUS. I aim to do this through an ambitious interdisciplinary project that contextualises the intersection of engineering, economics, policy, innovation, environment, and public perspectives.
With opposing views and many side events on CCUS for decarbonisation across various industries, I found COP28 a hub for exchanging ideas. As a result, I reinforced my research hypothesis and conviction to increase my efforts to conceptualise an optimisation framework for the acceleration of the adoption of CCUS.
Looking ahead to COP29: how financing can support CCUS
There are no specific targets disclosed yet with respect to the expectations for CCUS at COP29. The conference, to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, will most likely encompass measures relating to climate finance by focusing on states achieving independence in their sustainability pursuits. In that regard, CCUS is expected to be at the core of negotiations, with financial tools playing an essential role to create a market for the technology and rendering CCUS an attractive option for decarbonisation of end-use sectors.
In reality, the UAE Consensus is not the fairytale ending we had hoped for, but it underlines the beginning of a new era. From Dubai, our greenhouse gas emitting wings will take us to Baku in Azerbaijan in 2024 and Belem in Brazil in 2025. From one COP to the next, I wonder when we will attend the last meeting and strike the final gavel in the name of climate justice first imagined at Earth Day in 1970.
